Blow-out. Trump born-again as President.
Before the voting had finished, at 5:10 pm on November 5th, we decided to publish what we had been telling our data users for several months: Trump was likely to win by over 1.5 percentage points based on our analysis of the faulty assumptions of the opinion polls. We are mainly concerned with how a very big event might affect religion in New York City. We got such an event that was far bigger than we expected.
Blow-out election in the electoral college, widespread shift toward Trump all over the nation and all demographic groups in the vote count. Trump has staged the greatest comeback in US history (according to some)
Trump won by about 5 million votes, 51% for Trump versus 47.5% for Harris.
Trump evidently has won all of the so-called Great Blue Wall states, a few votes remain to be counted. He won a majority of the suburban women votes, posted up to 20% of the African American male votes, won the Hispanic men and did well among Hispanic women, and posted gains among Asian American voters. (All the figures will be subject to some tweaking as we get the complete results counted.)
In 90% of counties in the US, Trump’s vote significantly increased. He even had a blowout win in Hispanic areas of Texas.
Trumpian results in NYC
Though losing NY State and NYC, Trump got a higher percentage of NY state votes than any other Republican candidate in recent years.
His vote share went up in all parts of NYC. The biggest increase was in the Bronx, with a 35% increase. Other big increases were in Manhattan and Queens. Of course, he still lost the city
Trump got 30.44% of New York City’s vote in Tuesday’s election, according to the city Board of Elections.
This is the highest total Trump has seen across his three presidential bids.
“Most of Trump’s growing support can be tracked down to The Bronx, where ballots cast in his name soared 35% between 2020 and 2024. This year, 91,542 residents voted for the Republican compared to just 67,740 when he was up against President Biden,” writes the NY Post.
NYC religious voters
Former President Donald Trump picked up 43% of the Jewish vote in New York, according to Fox News exit polls. Nationally, Jews were more supportive of Harris, giving her 79% of their vote according to an exit poll conducted by a news consortium.
Kamela Harris’s support among Jewish voters was 56%, significantly lower than Biden’s support among Jews in 2020.
Jewish voters typically back Democratic candidates in high numbers, Biden received 68% of the Jewish vote in 2020, with Trump only receiving 30%.
Nationally, Protestants & other Christians (not Catholic) gave Trump 62% of their votes, Catholics, 56%, other religions 33%, and the Nones 25%.
Once again, White born-again or evangelical Christians strongly supported the election of Trump, giving them 81% of their vote. Note that this figure includes Protestants, Catholics, and other Christians. In previous surveys, a significant number of Catholics also call themselves “born-again or evangelical Christians.”
Hoisted on the petards of predictions
Predictions by most of the polls were off. (Even Journey, which suggested that the polls could be 3.5 – 9 points off, underestimated Trump’s vote with a prediction that he would win by at least 1.5 percentage points). The predictions of specialized polls like the one of Asian Americans that said Trump would lose to Harris by 38 percentage points were 20+ points mistaken.
The Republicans took a majority of the U.S. Senate, but the House results still remain to be determined. There were notable impacts of the changing mood of the nation. An Independent Republican won almost two-thirds of the vote against his no-bail, no-jail Democratic opponent, the LA County Attorney.
The NY Times came out in a fighting mood, with its online headlines mostly painting a dark picture of Trump with threats that violence could erupt (what are the editors going to do, wave their laptops at the incoming president?). Their election predictions consistently underestimated Trump’s support.
Why and so what does it mean for NYC religions?
Seriously, there has been a massive swing in the people who were very dissatisfied with the way the nation was going. The exit polls mention the big concerns as the economy and immigration. It turns out that GOP voters were more likely to see a threat to democracy than were the Democratic voters. So, Harris’ big campaign theme might have backfired by arousing the fears of GOP voters more than that of her supporters.
City religious leaders will need to absorb the lessons of the election. Now is the time to try to understand the people of NYC better. And the time to face people with whom we don’t agree ideologically with better empathy, sympathy, and appreciation.
Not least, there needs to be a recognition that Protestants, Catholics, and a large plurality of Jews are more interested in new solutions to social problems, at least in the short run. Social justice concerns may start to be redefined. If compassionate efforts can be improved after this election. that would be golden.
New Yorkers want the faith leaders to recognize the important role as protectors of their flocks against crime and chaos. Their question is, “Do you have our back?” Protection is a very large ingredient of social justice. Some may have forgotten this, or, to the onlooking public, seem only concerned with protecting “some” people.
The future may bring some turning back toward getting deeper and more knowledgeable in faith. For those who are disheartened by Trump’s victory, the doors of faith journeys should be opened. For the victors, the pews of kneeling in humbleness should be made use of.
