The 2020 population figure for New York State is a bit of surprise. It increased slightly over 2010, but many had expected it to decline.
Several percent’s of people have moved out of the city during the COVID period, and it is uncertain how many will move back.
The Census found that there were 20,201,249 residents in New York State. However, for determining the population for apportioning how many congressional seats the state gets, the Census also counts non-resident New Yorkers (mainly those who live overseas). Including the non-resident New Yorkers, the total state population is 20,215,751.
The census is supposed to be a snapshot of the United States’ population on a specific date: April 1, 2020. That happened to be right as the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic swept through New York. The state has lost 51,511 dead to the disease, more than any other state than California. 32,375 of the deaths occurred in New York City.
Fight looming over New York state population count.
The slightly larger figure of resident and non-resident New Yorkers still leaves New York State 89 people short of retaining all of its congressional seats. There will surely be challenges to this total.
The city as a whole is growing very slowly, though slightly faster than the state as a whole.
Total city population: 8.66 million people in 2019
Population growth of .5% in 2019
Will the city continue to grow in population after the current crisis?
NYC in chaos may lose population. Closings on condos, coops, & townhouses dropped 75% from 2017 levels, according to real estate data by Marketproof. Churches report 10%+ above the average move-outs (temporarily or permanent) of congregants.
Various other indicators like address change requests and address changes in credit report data show a 1-2% drop in NYC population, but a substantial portion of this shift is going to the city’s suburbs and exurbs. Possibly, the footprint of the city will include a web of remote commuters with occasional stays in the core city.
Certain parts of the city have lost more population during COVID. Manhattan Center City and close-to Manhattan areas that have a high percent of upwardly mobile professionals have temporarily, at least, lost up to 10-20% of their population.
Effects of population trends on NYC religions
How will this population steadiness, if it resumes, affect religious groups in New York City? We can project some trends based upon what was happening pre-COVID. Then, we will have to wait to see what happens.
* Less creative disruption of social mores, customs, and ideas.
* Religious innovations and switching will slow down, though the momentum will remain high for a while. Other trends may undermine the religious status quo and provide opportunities for religious innovation (or retreat).
* Despite an overall slowdown, the movement of migrants, immigrants, and commuters in and out of the city will remain brisk. There will still be many smaller moments of shaking of habit and custom for local citizens to reflect on the meaning of their lives and to ask if there isn’t a better way.
*The shock of the American chaos might provide an impetus in New York City for religious and irreligious questioning for several years.
*Innovations in online ministry and strategic thinking may fuel a religious resurgence. Alternatively, there could be a retreat from the city or energy poured into maintaining the status quo, or even a net deterioration of current religious organizations. Some predict a withdrawal from Manhattan involvement by people who are virtually commuting to work. Instead, these virtual commuters will find most of their social and spiritual interests residing in local neighborhoods in the boroughs.
*A shrinking city may cause strategic thinking to turn toward near and far suburban religious growth. This certainly happened in the 1950s-1960s.
Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have left the city during our pandemic era. What will this mean for religion? At least one strong possibility is that New Yorkers will carry remnants of religious wave that started growing in the late 1970s and before the pandemic was still growing. Thousands of new churches, synagogues, temples, masjids, and the like were built. But moving always disconnects the movers from their former settled lives. Will they find God outside of the city? Will the pandemic disruption mean another decline in faith?
Forty years ago, a fictional book for teenagers asked the same question. As churches and synagogues left the city by the hundreds to the suburbs, the question was what was being lost and what was being gained? Were God and deep spirituality being lost in the suburban wasteland? Or was a new revival with transplants from New York City’s religions going to shake the tract houses of ticky-tacky?
In 1970, Margaret worried about leaving New York City. She prayed to God, “Don’t let New Jersey be too horrible.” Forty years later, Judy Blume’s Are you there God? It’s me Margaret is still relevant.
*Chaos in other parts of the world like Hong Kong may release a new wave of immigrants to New York City religious groups if they are active in recruitment and welcoming of them.
Overall, the city was becoming more White and Asian American.
During the Black Lives Matter protests in Brooklyn, a study of the demonstrators indicated something pretty unusual: 71% of the demonstrators were White Americans, mainly below the age of 34. What happened to all the African American protestors? Brooklyn is the population center of African Americans in the city.
Quietly, New York City is becoming more White and Asian American. The younger African Americans are moving out of the city, leaving an aging population of parents and grandparents. This is a startling change in the racial/ethnic profile of the city, and it is also found in other cities in the United States. We can see this trend happening by comparing the in-migration and out-migration of peoples between 2010 and 2014. In 2018, U.S. Census figures indicated that the trend had continued. What will be the impact of COVID?
Trackbacks/Pingbacks